UBS raises Compass to buy on Christie's deal, growth potential

 UBS upgraded Compass Inc (NYSE: COMP ) to “Buy” with a price target of $11 given its recently closed acquisition of Christie's International Real Estate and the potential for organic market share gains.

UBS sees Compass delivering a 14% three-year revenue CAGR and a 60% adjusted EBITDA CAGR through 2027, with its estimates for 2026 about 20% above consensus. The firm believes the stock has not fully priced in the contribution from Christie's or Compass’s execution in organic growth and cost containment.

Upcoming catalysts include the launch of Compass One, a new client-facing homebuying platform, and potential regulatory changes to the National Association of Realtors' Clear Cooperation Policy, which could give Compass a competitive advantage in marketing listings. UBS also expects synergies from the $444 million Christie's deal, which expands Compass into franchising and strengthens its technology and brand presence.

The firm raised its price target from $7 to $11, valuing Compass at 14 times its forecasted 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $449 million.