Investing.com -- Standard Chartered expects Bitcoin to break through to a new all-time high in the second quarter of 2025, driven by a strategic reallocation away from U.S. assets, with several key indicators signaling momentum is building.
“We expect a strategic asset reallocation away from U.S. assets to trigger the next sharp upswing in Bitcoin (BTC) in the coming months,” Geoff Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, said in a note.
Kendrick sees Bitcoin rising from its current level near $95,000 to around $120,000 this quarter, with gains continuing through the summer toward a year-end target of $200,000.
The bank points to a confluence of supportive factors. The U.S. Treasury term premium—a metric that has shown close correlation with Bitcoin—is now at a 12-year high.
Moreover, exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows over the past week signal a reallocation from gold into Bitcoin, indicating a change in investor perception of safe-haven assets.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin “whales”—wallets holding more than 1,000 BTC—have been accumulating during the recent pullback and recovery.
“Wo-called ‘whale’ investors in Bitcoin have increased their holdings during both the tariff-led price decline and the subsequent recovery driven by Fed independence risks,” Kendrick noted.
He highlights that whales were also strong Bitcoin buyers during prior periods of strong gains, such as Trump’s victory in the last election, the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, and the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank.
Kendrick also stresses that timing is critical in Bitcoin investing, as most of the returns in recent years have come in sharp bursts rather than steady climbs. “If investors had timed these moves right, they would have done very well; if they missed them, total returns would have been close to zero,” the report says.
The recent uptick in U.S. and Asian buying since President Trump’s 90-day tariff reprieve announcement has further bolstered demand for non-U.S. assets, including Bitcoin.
Looking ahead, the strategist expects more long-term support from institutional investors, with upcoming 13F filings likely to reveal increased holdings by pension and sovereign wealth funds.
Structural price gains may also be supported by expected U.S. stablecoin legislation later this year, Kendrick added.